Invest Like The Best

Sarah Guo is the founder of Conviction and one of the most closely watched investors in AI. In this conversation, Sarah and Patrick discuss what the people at the frontier of AI actually believe, why some researchers think exponential intelligence may be only a few years away, and how she’s navigating an investing environment that can’t be backtested. They also explore the race for compute, the future of open-source AI, why America may need compute independence, the rapid progress in robotics, how AI could transform biology and drug discovery, and Sarah’s framework for building conviction before the rest of the market catches up. Timestamps 0:00 Intro 1:08 Investing Through the AI Boom 5:03 Building Conviction in AI 12:06 What AI Researchers Believe 15:44 Compute, Capital & Robotics 24:03 How Sarah Makes Investments 39:24 The Case for Open Source 49:01 America’s Compute Independence 51:32 AI’s New Investment Markets 59:36 Finding Truth & What’s Next #InvestLikeTheBest #SarahGuo #ArtificialIntelligence #AI…

Neil Movva, co-founder of Sail Research, joins Patrick to explain why the next era of AI may be defined not by faster chatbots, but by background agents that work autonomously for hours, days, or even weeks—and what it will take to make that intelligence cheap enough to become abundant. Neil lays out Sail’s “token factory” strategy across software, chips, data centers, and power; the lessons he learned chasing “speed of light” performance at Nvidia; why he’ll buy almost any chip at the right price; and why unreliable, distributed data centers powered by sources like solar and wind could actually be an advantage. They also discuss transformers and memory, the future of AI training data, the economics of the chip shortage, open versus closed models, and Neil’s belief that there will always be demand for more intelligence. TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 0:38 Building a “Token Factory” 4:21 The Future of Background Agents 13:09 Nvidia and the GPU Stack 23:27 Chips, Memory, and Transformers 36:14 The Future of AI Training…

Ben Thompson joins Invest Like the Best for a wide-ranging conversation about the economics, geopolitics, and business models shaping the AI era. They discuss why overwhelming U.S. dominance in AI could be dangerous, whether the massive AI infrastructure buildout can generate returns before the capital runs out, and what the railroad boom can teach us about today’s spending cycle. Ben also explains why Google may increasingly resemble Berkshire Hathaway, how AI could turn intelligence into a commodity, why Amazon may have the deepest moat in technology, what Apple gets right by staying focused on hardware, how AI threatens Microsoft’s core business, why the current compute shortage may have saved Intel, and why Google and Amazon could ultimately become Nvidia’s most important competitors. #InvestLikeTheBest #BenThompson #ArtificialIntelligence #AI #Investing #Technology #Nvidia #Google TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 0:59 America and the AI Race 8:26 AI’s Funding Problem 15:31 AI’s Capabilities and Limits 20:30…

Eric Vishria, General Partner at Benchmark, joins Invest Like the Best for a wide-ranging conversation on how AI is reshaping software, infrastructure, and venture investing. He explains why the competitive frontier for SaaS has shifted, why companies can destroy value by faithfully executing an outdated plan, and what the cloud wars can teach us about the emerging AI market. Eric also discusses Fireworks and Sierra, the importance of understanding AI’s “jagged edge,” why some AI companies are effectively “selling magic,” and why he believes the market could support many enormous winners. The conversation also covers energy as a potential bottleneck to intelligence, the story behind Benchmark’s early investment in Cerebras, the future of robotics, what he looks for in founders and board partnerships, Benchmark’s expansion into growth investing, and the lessons he’s learned from backing companies capable of generating extraordinary returns. TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 3:36 What Cloud Teaches Us About AI 12:52…

In this episode of Invest Like the Best, Patrick O'Shaughnessy sits down with Gavin Baker to dissect the intense AI and semiconductor market sell-off of July 2026. Describing the period as "2022 packed into a single month," Gavin explains why public market panic contrasts sharply with the booming fundamentals seen on the ground in Silicon Valley. They dive into the accelerating operating cash flows of hyperscalers, the soaring spot prices for GPUs, and why open-source AI models are actually driving massive infrastructure demand. Gavin also unpacks the game theory behind Long-Term Agreements (LTAs) in the memory market, NVIDIA's strategic dominance, SpaceX's massive data center ambitions, and the looming regulatory risks for AI compute. Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:17 AI Selloff vs. Fundamentals 10:20 Financing the AI Buildout 18:18 GPU Prices Keep Rising 24:23 Claude Moves Markets 29:01 What Could Break the Thesis 36:59 The Memory Supply War 42:08 Nvidia’s New Playbook 50:14 China and Open Source 61:51 Data…

Sam Altman joins us for a wide-ranging conversation about OpenAI’s next chapter, the race for compute, and what happens as artificial intelligence becomes more powerful, abundant, and embedded across the economy. He explains why OpenAI recently narrowed its focus, why demand for intelligence may be effectively uncapped, how close we may be to AGI, and what the future could hold for robotics, jobs, hardware, and human agency. We also discuss the accidental launch of ChatGPT, OpenAI’s competitive advantages, the economics of intelligence, and the pressure and responsibility that come with leading one of the world’s most consequential companies. TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 4:10 The Race for Compute 14:24 A Sci-Fi Cyber Incident 16:14 The Promise and Risks of AGI 23:27 How AI Will Change Jobs 29:38 Sam’s Vision for a Personal AI 35:02 Robotics, ChatGPT, and What Comes Next 44:39 The Weight of Leading OpenAI 51:36 OpenAI’s Biggest Lessons Presented by Ramp: https://ramp.com/invest Sponsored by Vanta, WorkOS, Rogo, and…

Matt Smith joins us to explain why the United States may be approaching a historic natural gas shortage—and why the market is not yet pricing it in. After 18 months of bottom-up research across producing basins, pipelines, processing infrastructure, LNG exports, and AI power projects, Matt argues that the country could begin drawing down gas storage at unprecedented rates as early as 2028, with major implications for electricity prices, hyperscaler economics, and the American consumer. In June, Matthew wrote a letter to a small group of confidants laying out the full case behind his natural gas forecast. He has allowed us to publish it. You can read the full letter here: https://colossus.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/letter-III-got-gas.pdf TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:30 What Drives the Deficit 11:00 Why Supply Can’t Catch Up 20:35 The 2030 Gas Crisis 25:05 Winners and Losers 29:00 Nuclear and Solar 33:30 Consumers Pay the Bill 37:20 AI’s Next Shortage 45:25 Solutions and Global Stakes 51:15 The Coming Gas Knife…

John Kim, former chief development officer at General Catalyst and author of The Tao of Fundraising, joins us to explain the psychology, strategy, and human dynamics behind raising capital. John argues that money moves at the speed of trust—and that the best fundraisers understand how to increase desire, reduce fear, simplify their story, and build genuine conviction. He shares the three laws of fundraising, explains how General Catalyst built consensus across its investor base, and breaks down why logic alone rarely persuades someone to say yes. TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 4:07 Starting a Fundraise 10:40 How General Catalyst Built Consensus 16:56 The Three Laws of Fundraising 27:01 The Psychology of Every Sales Meeting 36:49 The Secretary of State Model 46:12 The Inner Game of Fundraising Presented by Ramp: https://ramp.com/invest Sponsored by Vanta, WorkOS, Rogo, and Ridgeline: https://www.vanta.com/invest https://workos.com/ https://rogo.ai/invest https://www.ridgelineapps.com/ ****** Patrick O'Shaughnessy is…

Jeremy Giffon joins us for his second conversation on Invest Like the Best. This episode is a window into one of those conversations about how power, status, capital, and attention are shifting in America. We discuss the billion dollar PDF, why narratives shape capital formation, how the timeline became market infrastructure, why America’s billionaire class may be losing status to the “poaster” class, the hidden philosophers behind Silicon Valley, lessons from the last 18 months in private markets, East Coast versus West Coast finance, Buffett, beating the market, and much more. TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 5:50 The Billion Dollar PDF 11:31 Algorithms and Power Laws 20:28 Peak Guy 31:19 Opting Out of the Timeline 36:14 AI and White-Collar Jobs 43:31 The Next Era of Finance 53:56 The New Economics of Software 1:03:22 Underwriting Emerging Managers 1:18:17 Silicon Valley’s Hidden Philosophy Presented by Ramp: https://ramp.com/invest Sponsored by Vanta, WorkOS, Rogo, and Ridgeline: https://www.vanta.com/invest…

Gavin Uberti and Robert Wachen, co-founders of Etched, join us to tell the story of building one of the most ambitious AI chip companies in the world. Three years ago, they were two Harvard dropouts trying to convince skeptics they could build better inference hardware than the largest semiconductor companies on earth. Today, Etched has raised $800M, signed more than $1B in customer contracts, and taped out a working chip designed for the post-ChatGPT era. We discuss why inference may become the largest market in the world, why Etched built an entire rack instead of just a chip, the technical bets behind low-voltage inference and cluster-scale memory, how they recruited industry legends while still in their twenties, the near-death fundraising moments that almost ended the company, and why the future of AI may belong to whoever can produce the most tokens. TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:00 Why Nobody Believed Etched Would Work 14:06 Why Inference Is the Bottleneck 22:27 Gavin and Rob’s Origin Stories 33:24 Taking…

Vlad Barbalat is President of Global Risk & Capital Solutions and Chief Investment Officer at Liberty Mutual Insurance, where he helps oversee one of the most unique investment platforms in the world: a $120 billion balance sheet with no third-party capital. In this conversation, Vlad and Patrick discuss how insurance float creates permanent capital, why Liberty Mutual’s structure allows it to invest differently, how to think about risk, liquidity, private markets, credit, AI, geopolitics, and the future of trillion-dollar companies. Vlad also shares his personal story of immigrating from Moldova, why he believes America gives people an unparalleled level of agency, and how that worldview shapes his approach to investing, leadership, and pragmatic optimism. TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 1:15 Liberty Mutual’s $120B Balance Sheet 12:27 Preparing, Not Predicting 18:51 Building a Fortress Balance Sheet 26:13 Immigration and American Agency 34:00 Risk Taking and Craft 40:14 Branded Capital 44:42 Geopolitics and American…

In this episode of Invest Like The Best, Patrick O'Shaughnessy sits down with Kareem Amin, co-founder and CEO of Clay. Kareem shares his unconventional philosophy on building a highly successful software company by creating from a place of "wholeness" rather than "lack." They explore why true capitalism rewards genuine risk-taking, the value of courage, and the importance of optimizing for self-respect above all else. Kareem dives deep into how lessons from non-dual meditation, music theory, and magicians heavily influence his approach to product development, hiring, and scaling Clay. From debating the necessity of a grand vision to introducing the concept of a "death doula" for companies that have achieved their purpose, Kareem offers a refreshingly profound perspective on ambition, wealth, and leading a meaningful life in business. #KareemAmin #Clay #InvestLikeTheBest #Startups #Entrepreneurship #SaaS #Leadership #Founders #TechStartups #BusinessGrowth Timestamps 0:00 Giving the Power of Programming to…

Alex Sacerdote is the Founder and Portfolio Manager of Whale Rock Capital Management, where he has spent the past two decades investing through major technology platform shifts. In this episode, Alex walks through Whale Rock’s framework for finding the most important companies in technology: S-curves, competitive advantage, and underappreciated earnings power. He explains why AI may be the biggest S-curve yet, how Whale Rock built conviction in Anthropic, why code has become the first major unlock for AI, what AI means for the software market, and why the hardware industry powering AI is entering a new renaissance. TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 9:55 AI's L-Curve 19:31 Whale Rock's S-Curve Playbook 26:14 Spotting Inflection Points 32:02 Finding AI Winners 40:04 AI vs Software 48:13 The Hardware Renaissance 58:04 Why Investors Miss AI 1:05:18 Whale Rock's Research Machine Presented by Ramp: https://ramp.com/invest Sponsored by Vanta, WorkOS, Rogo, and Ridgeline: https://www.vanta.com/invest https://workos.com/…

Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber, joins Invest Like the Best to discuss Uber’s next chapter: the rise of AI, autonomous vehicles, robotaxis, drones, delivery, and the company’s ambition to become the demand aggregator for the physical world. He explains why Uber is a supply-led marketplace, how the company is partnering across the AV ecosystem, what AI is already changing inside Uber, and why he believes autonomous transportation could unlock another trillion-dollar market. Dara also shares lessons from rebuilding Uber through chaos, leading with transparency, learning from Barry Diller and Reed Hastings, and staying open to the “troublemakers” who help companies evolve. TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 3:44 Bringing Order to Uber’s Chaos 7:22 Managing Stress, Immigrant Drive, and Going All In 14:28 Why Uber Is at the Center of AI and the Physical World 22:39 How Uber Plans to Win in Autonomous Vehicles 32:25 The Trillion-Dollar AV Opportunity 37:05 Drones, Robotaxis, and Global Adoption 38:20 Uber Eats, Uber One, and…

Patrick O'Shaughnessy sits down with Dan Loeb, the legendary investor and founder of Third Point. Dan shares his incredible evolution from a deep-value, event-driven credit investor to a dynamic capital allocator spanning equities, venture capital, and private credit. They dive into the current macro environment, focusing heavily on the transformative power of AI, semiconductors, and energy. Dan also unpacks his most memorable activist campaigns, including Sotheby's and Sony, and explains what makes a truly great corporate governance structure. Additionally, he reveals the painful lessons learned from the FTX collapse, the genius of the Danaher business system, and how his firm uses reinsurance to drive growth. This is a masterclass in market adaptation, continuous improvement, and the enduring value of human connection in finance. #Investing #DanLoeb #ThirdPoint #HedgeFunds #StockMarket #VentureCapital #AI #CorporateGovernance #ActivistInvesting #Finance Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:48 Macro Views and Tech…

Patrick O'Shaughnessy sits down with former Pentagon official Darren Farber to explore the complex landscape of modern warfare, geopolitics, and US military strategy. Darren shares his unique insights on what it means to "win" against adversaries driven by martyrdom cultures, examining the ongoing conflicts. They discuss the historical strategic frameworks of Eisenhower and Maxwell Taylor, the critical need to modernize the US defense industrial base, and why autocracies like China are inherently fragile despite their size. The conversation also dives into the rise of defense tech startups ("Neo Primes"), the rapid evolution of commercial drone warfare in Ukraine, and the emerging security threats surrounding military AI models. Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 Theaters of War 3:26 Flexible Power vs. Massive Retaliation 5:14 The Dual Nature of Dictatorships 7:43 Positive Propaganda 10:15 The Strait of Hormuz 11:29 Eisenhower and Taylor's Theories of Escalation 16:48 Grading the U.S. Military's Capabilities 18:01…

In this episode of Invest Like The Best, Patrick O'Shaughnessy is joined by Gavin Baker to dissect the unprecedented AI technology boom. Gavin explains why recent growth from companies like Anthropic represents the most extraordinary moment in the history of capitalism. They explore the critical constraints of the AI build-out—"watts and wafers"—and how capitalism, from TSMC's chip manufacturing dominance to SpaceX's potential orbital compute, is racing to solve them. Gavin also unpacks the competitive landscape of chip design, the struggles at the AI application layer, and the shifting dynamics between giants like Google, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft. Finally, they discuss the geopolitical risks of AGI alongside the incredible potential for AI to revolutionize biotech and extend human life. An essential listen for anyone navigating modern tech markets. #Investing #ArtificialIntelligence #TechStocks #Nvidia #OpenAI #Semiconductors #VentureCapital #SpaceX #AGI #StockMarket Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 7:55 Anthropic…

In this episode of Invest Like The Best, Patrick O'Shaughnessy sits down with Anthropic CFO Krishna Rao for a fascinating look inside one of the fastest-growing AI companies in the world. Krishna reveals what it takes to manage the lifeblood of generative AI: compute. From procuring gigawatts of processing power across Amazon, Google, and Nvidia, to dynamically allocating it for model training and customer demand, compute dictates Anthropic's future. They explore the company's mind-bending exponential revenue growth, the "cone of uncertainty" in forecasting, and why frontier AI models continue to defy scaling limits. Krishna also shares how Claude is revolutionizing his own internal finance team, Anthropic's unique culture of safety and transparency, and his bold predictions for AI-driven breakthroughs in healthcare. #Anthropic #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #Investing #Technology #Claude #Compute #MachineLearning #VentureCapital #Finance Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:38 The Compute Canvas 6:51 The "Cone of…

Patrick O'Shaughnessy sits down with Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky to explore the critical shift from "Founder Mode" to "CEO Mode." Brian opens up about his journey from an industrial design student to leading a generational tech company, sharing the hard-learned lessons of the pandemic that forced him to rethink his leadership style. He discusses the profound influence of Apple's design philosophy, the famous "11-star experience" exercise, and why he believes the age of AI will spark a massive consumer renaissance. Brian also reveals his unique pipeline approach to hiring, how to empower elite teams, and the life-changing impact of simply believing in someone's untapped potential. This is a masterclass in leadership, design thinking, and the relentless pursuit of perfection. #brianchesky #Airbnb #FounderMode #Leadership #Entrepreneurship #Tech #CEO #ArtificialIntelligence #Investing #Business #Growth #designthinking Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 Studying Industrial Design 11:33 AI Founder Mode 17:02 Lack of…

Legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones joins Patrick to discuss his 50-year career in markets and his philosophy on life. Paul contrasts the intense life of a trader with that of a long-term investor, sharing lessons from the 1987 crash, the 1980 silver collapse, and his evolving appreciation for Warren Buffett. He details his rigorous daily routine, his macro outlook on the current debt bubble, and his urgent concerns regarding AI safety and regulation. Beyond finance, Paul reflects on the founding of the Robin Hood Foundation, the transformative power of kindness, and his advice for the next generation on finding significance beyond their careers. Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 The Kindest Thing (first) 11:50 Aim High and Shoot Straight 13:19 Trading vs. Investing 17:33 Riding the Trend 22:24 The Existential Risks of AI 29:54 The Nature of Trading 31:46 Bitcoin 35:55 Bubbles 42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ 46:00 Information Overload 47:07 Passion for Markets 50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation 54:18 The Workless…

Patrick O'Shaughnessy sits down with Dylan Patel, founder of SemiAnalysis, to explore the explosive supply and demand dynamics of the AI revolution. Dylan shares how his firm's token spend skyrocketed to $7 million a year, completely transforming their productivity and highlighting a new era where execution is cheap, but high-quality ideas are at a premium. They dive into the implications of Anthropic’s frontier models like Opus 4.7 and "Mythos," the hidden bottlenecks in the semiconductor supply chain (including memory, TSMC, and CPUs), and the economic phenomenon of "phantom GDP." Finally, Dylan shares his bold prediction on the societal impact of rapid AI scaling, including why large-scale anti-AI protests might be just around the corner. Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 Surging AI Spend 10:27 Token Demand 16:21 When Ideas Are Cheap and Execution is Easy 20:46 Model Hoarding 22:34 Robotics 27:03 The Compute Bottleneck 30:26 The AI Permanent Underclass 31:39 Supply Chain Reality 37:47 CPUs 42:54 Predictions:…

In this episode of Invest like the Best, we're joined by Alex Karnal, founder of Braidwell and one of the sharpest minds in biotech investing. Alex believes we are entering a trillion-dollar health revolution — one driven by GLP-1s, preventive medicine, AI-powered drug discovery, and a new model for how people take control of their health. We cover why GLP-1s may be the first real proof that medicine is shifting from reactive care to proactive prevention, why oral drugs could unlock massive adoption, and how a modern “health stack” could add years to our lives. We also discuss PCSK9 inhibitors, Alzheimer’s, cancer screening, peptides, citizen pharmacology, and the future of AI in medicine. This is a fascinating look at where healthcare is going and what it could mean for all of us. Please enjoy this conversation with Alex Karnal. TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 Intro 1:00 The State of Modern Medicine 5:00 Designing the Modern Health Stack 12:17 The GLP-1 Inflection Point 19:18 The Biological Mechanisms of GLP-1 30:36…

Patrick O'Shaughnessy sits down with Scott Nolan, Founder and CEO of General Matter, Partner at Founders Fund, and early SpaceX engineer. Scott shares his fascinating career journey, from building rocket engines at an early-stage SpaceX to joining Peter Thiel at Founders Fund to invest in "atoms over bits." He explains the contrarian investing frameworks he learned and how avoiding trends led to massive hardware wins. Finally, Scott dives deep into his new venture, General Matter, detailing why energy abundance is the ultimate proxy for human prosperity, the explosive energy demands of AI data centers, and why enriching uranium to power the next generation of advanced nuclear reactors is the most urgent engineering problem to solve today. #Investing #FoundersFund #SpaceX #NuclearEnergy #Startups #PeterThiel #Hardware #VentureCapital #Energy #DataCenters Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 Frameworks for Finding Important Problems 6:18 Lessons from Peter Thiel: Avoiding Trends 9:32 Spotting Underappreciated Companies…

In this episode of Invest Like The Best, Patrick O'Shaughnessy is joined by Alan Waxman, CEO of Sixth Street Partners. Alan dives deep into the evolution of the American financial system, explaining the historical guardrails and incentives that led to the modern boom in private credit. He introduces the "Factory Model" of investing, warning against the dangers of asset-liability mismatches and deteriorating underwriting standards in today's wealth channel. Beyond high-level macroeconomics, Alan shares his highly effective one-page personal organization system for maximizing return on time and balancing left-brain tactics with right-brain creativity. They also discuss the rapid adoption of AI, navigating career stages from your 20s to your 50s, redefining personal success, and the firm’s core ethos of always "facing the tiger." Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 13:48 The Rise of Private Capital 16:29 The Factory Model 22:19 The Wealth Channel 30:53 Asset-Liability Mismatches 44:17 AI & Creative Destruction 47:30…

Sergey Levine, co-founder of Physical Intelligence, joins the show to discuss the frontier of general-purpose robotics. Unlike traditional robots designed for specific tasks, Levine is building foundation models that enable robots to understand and interact with the physical world generally. They explore the shift from specialized bots to "physical intelligence," the parallels between LLMs and robotic learning, and how end-to-end AI models are solving complex motor control problems. Levine also covers the challenges of data collection, the "Robot Olympics" benchmarks, and realistic timelines for when robots might actually fold our laundry. This is a deep dive into the technology that could spark a Cambrian explosion in hardware and automation. #robotics #AI #machinelearning #physicalintelligence #automation #futuretech #deeplearning #techinvesting #investlikethebest #sergeylevine Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:39 Defining Physical Intelligence 5:19 The Challenge of Building General Models 6:34 The Stakes and…

Patrick O'Shaughnessy sits down with Mitchell Green, Founder of Lead Edge Capital, to discuss building an investment firm focused on consistency rather than moonshots. Mitchell breaks down Lead Edge’s unique model, which leverages a network of over 800 executive LPs to source and validate deals. They dive into the firm’s “Lead Edge 8” investment criteria, the importance of capital efficiency, and their machine-like process of making thousands of cold calls annually. Mitchell also shares his thoughts on deal structuring, the art of selling, and his skepticism regarding current AI valuations. Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 The Hierarchy of BS 2:20 Lessons From 10,000 Cold Calls 9:05 Base Hits vs. Grand Slams 15:24 The 8 Buying Criteria 17:24 Pricing and the AI Exit Multiple Trap 19:24 Software as a Game of Distribution 23:20 Creative Deal Structuring 26:27 The Framework for Focus 29:01 The Art of the Investigative Cold Call 34:24 Culture of Hustle 35:34 The Annual One-on-One Process 37:59 Playing to Strengths…

William Hockey, co-founder of Plaid and founder of Column, joins the show to discuss building the global operating system for the US dollar. Unlike the typical Silicon Valley playbook, William funded Column entirely with his own to avoid the "hamster wheel" of venture capital. In this conversation, he shares unconventional wisdom on why modern founders take too little risk, the strategic importance of solving boring problems, and why he spends time in emerging markets like Kinshasa. We also cover the US dollar as a national security asset and why distribution will matter more than technology in the AI era. Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 9:19 Emerging Markets 14:03 Silicon Valley's Elite Consensus Problem 16:03 Rejecting the VC Hamster Wheel 21:45 Equity and Liquidity 26:03 Funding a Bank 29:45 The Necessity of Extreme Founder Risk 37:18 Finding Leverage 45:20 Longevity and Profitability in Banking 48:46 Matching Your Capital Structure to Your Business 51:44 The Unseen Power of the US Dollar 1:02:30 How AI Will…

Patrick O'Shaughnessy sits down with Shyam Sankar, CTO of Palantir Technologies, to discuss the critical role of "heretics" in driving American innovation and military success. Shyam shares Palantir's unique approach to unlocking extreme talent through high-stakes "gamma ray" moments and explains the philosophy behind their pioneering Forward Deployed Engineering model. The conversation dives deep into the urgent need to re-industrialize the United States, the shifting dynamics of the global defense industrial base, and how the US can maintain its asymmetric advantages against adversaries like China. They also explore the power of enterprise ontology, the future of AI, and how holding onto a culture of rebellion is essential for long-term survival. #Palantir #ShyamSankar #Technology #Investing #DefenseTech #Manufacturing #Innovation #Engineering #AI #Leadership #mobilize Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:23 Defining Heretics in US Military History 8:36 Shyam’s Personal Disagreeableness 9:49 Formative Experiences &…

Patrick O'Shaughnessy interviews legendary energy trader and philanthropist John Arnold. John shares eye-opening insights from his recent trip to China, contrasting their manufacturing speed and robotics innovation with the West. They dive deep into John’s historic trading career, from his time at Enron to building Centaurus, and break down the current state of US energy markets, including the impact of AI data centers, permitting reform, and the future of nuclear and geothermal power. Finally, they explore John’s systems-based approach to philanthropy, covering criminal justice, healthcare, and education reform. #investing #energy #china #trading #economics #ai #business #nuclear #philanthropy #innovation Timestamps: 0:00 intro 0:45 China’s Rapid Transformation 3:53 Lessons from the Chinese EV Market 6:12 Robotics 11:22 The Discipline of an Elite Trader 15:42 Leveraging Scale and Proprietary Data 17:36 Lessons from the Baseball Cards 21:15 Trading Natural Gas and Market Dynamics 25:34 Innovation in the…

Patrick sits down with Dan Sundheim, Founder and CIO of D1 Capital Partners. They discuss Dan’s unique path from anonymous posting on Value Investors Club to managing one of the world's top crossover funds. The conversation covers the distinct dynamics between public and private markets, with deep dives into D1’s investments in SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. Dan offers his perspective on the future of AI scaling laws, the evolving landscape of software, and the enduring value of fundamental short selling. They also explore lessons learned from the GameStop era, the importance of resilience, and significant geopolitical risks facing the global economy. Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:05 Public vs. Private Markets 9:10 LLMs as a Business Model 23:23 The Future of Hyperscalers 27:45 AI's Impact on Traditional Software 36:31 Surviving the GameStop Short Squeeze 49:54 Big Private Bets: Rivian and SpaceX 54:26 The Art of Short Selling 1:04:28 Early Career 1:17:11 Geopolitics and the Semiconductor Collision Course 1:22:05…

Alex Behring and Daniel Schwartz, Co-Managing Partners of 3G Capital, join Patrick for one of the most detailed public conversations they’ve ever had about how 3G actually works. 3G has built one of the most distinctive firms in investing around a simple idea: there are only a handful of truly great businesses and even fewer great CEOs. Their model is to raise capital with the intention of making just one investment per fund, commit meaningful amounts of their own money alongside their partners, and focus all of their time and best people on that single opportunity. What sets them apart is that they come to investing as operators. Alex previously ran the largest railroad in Latin America, and Daniel served as CEO of Burger King, and many of their partners have spent years as CEOs, CFOs, or senior operators inside complex organizations. Their approach has produced a series of iconic deals, including Burger King, Tim Hortons, Hunter Douglas, and Skechers. Along the way, they have also become known for…

Ben Horowitz, co-founder of a16z, joins Patrick to discuss the changing landscape of technology and the future of America. They explore how AI is altering the "laws of physics" for company building and why Ben remains optimistic about the US tech sector. The conversation covers the founding principles of a16z, lessons on management from Andy Grove, and why corporate culture is defined by actions, not values. Ben also details his initiative with the Las Vegas Police Department to use advanced technology for safer community policing. #a16z #venturecapital #ai #benhorowitz #technology #business #leadership #startups #investing #siliconvalley Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:00 The US Tech Advantage 2:49 A Solution for Everything 4:21 The Fragility of Success 7:14 The New Physics of Company Building 10:48 "Alchemistic" Talent 12:57 Inequality and the Kobe Bryant Effect 17:01 Automation History & The Future of Jobs 20:06 American Leadership in the AI Era 22:42 Andy Grove & High Output Management 26:02 The Hardest Part of…

Gokul Rajaram joins Patrick to discuss the seismic shift in product building driven by AI. As a legendary operator (Google, Facebook, Square, DoorDash) and prolific investor, Gokul breaks down how tools like Claude are merging design and engineering roles and why human "judgment" is the only future-proof skill. They explore the durability of software companies in an agentic world, the mechanics of building massive ad businesses, and lessons learned from working directly with leaders like Larry Page, Mark Zuckerberg, and Jack Dorsey. Finally, Gokul shares a framework for career growth and hiring "builders" in the AI era. Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 0:35 The Changing Nature of Product Development 4:09 The Merger of Product and Design 4:54 Managing Non-Deterministic Software 9:06 Judgment: The Future-Proof Human Skill 10:41 Building Durable AI Applications 16:43 The Risk to Legacy Software Companies 21:20 Sources of Stickiness in the Age of AI 23:43 Leadership Lessons from Google 27:41 Learning from Mark Zuckerberg…

Patrick O'Shaughnessy as interviews Tom Digan and Greg Stewart. Tom is the co-founder of Ladder, and Greg is its CEO. Ladder is the #1 strength training app with 300,000+ paying members and nearly $100M ARR. This episode reveals the dramatic journey from near-bankruptcy to market dominance, including how they pivoted from a failing marketplace to an engineering-first fitness platform. Learn their secrets to cracking TikTok's algorithm, building an empirical product development process, and scaling from $3M to $100M ARR in just two years. The conversation covers their unconventional fundraising strategies, data-driven approach to understanding customers, and plans for expanding into nutrition and beyond. A masterclass in consumer company building, persistence, and the power of truly understanding your customers. #LadderFitness #StartupStory #ConsumerTech #FitnessApp #TikTokMarketing #ProductMarketFit #Entrepreneurship #StartupFunding #MobileApps #FitnessIndustry Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:07 The Genesis of…

Patrick sits down with Reed Hastings, the co-founder and Executive Chairman of Netflix. They explore the counterintuitive philosophies that built one of the world's most successful media companies, starting with the origin story of "talent density" and why Reed believes companies should run like professional sports teams rather than families. They discuss the "informed captain" model for decision-making , the strategic value of contrarian thinking in the shift from DVD to streaming , and the lessons Reed learned serving on the boards of Microsoft and Facebook. Finally, Reed opens up about his post-Netflix chapters: the turnaround of the Powder Mountain ski resort and his philanthropic focus on AI-driven education. TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 Intro 02:00 Talent Density 05:23 Professional Sports Team Model 09:07 Managing on the Edge of Chaos 10:17 The Keeper's Test 12:46 Qwikster 16:30 Contrarian Thinking & Idea Generation 20:04 Lessons from Boards 26:25 The Open Compensation Experiment 28:24 The Strategy Behind Original…

In this episode, Patrick interviews Henry Ellenbogen, founder of Durable Capital Partners. Henry shares his investment philosophy of finding the 1% of companies that become long-term compounders, growing 6x over 10 years. He discusses "Act Two" entrepreneurs who leverage previous experience to build better companies, the importance of studying business history, and how AI represents a transformative shift comparable to the internet. Henry explains Durable's unique approach of investing in companies from private stages through public markets, their focus on people and change, and why going public can benefit growing companies. The conversation covers market structure changes, competitive advantages, team building, and Henry's belief in balancing growth, profitability, and innovation for sustainable success. TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 03:02 Origin of an Investment Philosophy 07:02 The "One Percent" of Stocks 13:17 Domino's 19:10 Betting on "Act Two" Teams 24:31 Building Durable Capital 34:46 Market Structure and…

In this episode of Invest Like The Best, Patrick O'Shaughnessy sits down with investor Gavin Baker to explore the rapidly evolving AI landscape. They dive deep into the infrastructure war between Nvidia and Google, discuss the implications of Gemini 3 and scaling laws, and examine how the transition from Hopper to Blackwell chips is reshaping the industry. Baker shares his insights on frontier AI models and the economics of token production. The conversation also covers data centers in space, the future of robotics, and why traditional SaaS companies are making critical mistakes with AI adoption. A comprehensive look at the technical, economic, and strategic forces driving the AI revolution. Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 5:03 The Blackwell Transition 23:15 The Prisoner's Dilemma 27:12 The Bear Case: Edge AI 37:19 Meta, Open Source, and Model Depreciation 43:08 Geopolitics and Rare Earths 50:42 Data Centers in Space 56:06 Power Constraints as a Governor 1:11:31 The SaaS Mistake 1:16:17 Nuclear and Quantum 1:22:25…

David George, head of growth investing at Andreessen Horowitz, shares insights on the future of AI, growth stage investing, and building billion-dollar companies. From analyzing OpenAI's potential beyond chatbots to discussing the competitive dynamics in autonomous driving with Waymo vs Tesla, George reveals how A16z identifies and backs market leaders. He explores the "technical terminator" founder archetype, explains why high-growth companies are undervalued by traditional metrics, and discusses the firm's unique investment decision-making process. George also covers the evolution of venture capital competition, strategies for beating incumbents, and how AI companies will disrupt traditional SaaS businesses through new UI/UX and business models. TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 Intro 6:54 Enterprise AI 10:23 Lessons from Waymo 16:17 Technical Terminators 22:34 The "Glengarry Glen Ross" Rule 31:23 Winning Competitive Deals 42:24 The "Yankees" Mindset 46:13 Decision Making 51:12 Model Busters 53:42 Push vs. Pull Markets…

Martín Escobari, Head of Global Growth Equity at General Atlantic, shares insights from 25+ years of investing across 19 countries. He discusses the "spearfishing" investment philosophy, navigating market bubbles and global volatility, and why patience is crucial for capturing generational opportunities. The conversation covers AI investment strategies, the prevalence of trauma-driven entrepreneurs, global market opportunities, and his unconventional mentoring approach that has helped create billionaire entrepreneurs. #InvestLikeTheBest #GeneralAtlantic #GrowthEquity #GlobalInvesting #AI #Entrepreneurship #investing #3GCapital #EmergingMarkets #VentureCapital Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 4:12 The Art of Spearfishing 9:20 Navigating Bubbles 16:38 Chuck Feeney’s Vision 23:43 Evergreen Funds 27:39 The Case for Global Diversification 40:07 Checklist vs. Gut 51:53 Career Advice for the AI Era 56:11 Power Alleys 1:09:36 Mentoring 1:12:07 Kindest Thing Presented by Ramp: https://ramp.com/invest Sponsored by AlphaSense…

Ari Emanuel joins Patrick O'Shaughnessy to discuss his incredible journey from dyslexic kid in special education to one of entertainment's most powerful dealmakers. Emanuel shares the story behind acquiring the UFC, building a live events empire spanning combat sports to art festivals, and his contrarian bet on "anti-AI" experiences. He reveals his relentless communication style, the emotional toll of high-stakes negotiations, and lessons learned from working with Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and his brothers Rahm and Zeke Emanuel. From wrestling in high school to revolutionizing sports entertainment, Emanuel explains why live events will become more valuable as AI transforms content creation, and discusses his vision for the future of boxing, premium experiences, and what parents should tell their kids about an AI-dominated world. TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 Intro 1:53 Spotting the Potential of the UFC 6:33 The "Fight Island" Story 8:01 Dyslexia and Relentless Drive 9:00 Jeff Bezos' Advice 12:45 Power Dynamics in Content…

Wolfgang Hammer, acclaimed film producer behind House of Cards and former executive at Lionsgate, CBS Films, and Miramax, joins Patrick O'Shaughnessy to discuss the transformative power of storytelling in business. Now building a new film studio with backing from Marc Andreessen and Mitch Lasky, Wolfgang helps Fortune 100 CEOs and startup founders discover and communicate their company's story. This conversation serves as a practical manual for effective storytelling, covering Wolfgang's three essential story layers: external, emotional, and philosophical. Learn the specific questions and tools Wolfgang uses to help leaders understand what they do and why it matters, plus how to overcome the fear of embracing your company's full potential. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 02:50 The Three Layers of Story 04:44 Prompts for the Three Layers 05:54 Why Companies Struggle to Tell Their Story 08:11 The 80/20 Rule: Familiar vs. New 10:17 Suspense from Minimal New Information 11:16 Understanding the Customer's Story First…

Luca Ferrari, co-founder of Bending Spoons, joins Patrick O'Shaughnessy in Milan to discuss building Europe's most unique tech company. Bending Spoons operates as 25% private equity, 75% tech company - acquiring digital businesses to own and operate forever while completely transforming them. Ferrari shares the journey from near-bankruptcy with an €11 billion valuation, major acquisitions like Evernote, AOL, and Vimeo, and their radical approach to talent density with 800,000 job applications for 250 hires. The conversation covers their debt financing strategy, why consensus is overrated, the power of permanent capital thinking, and how AI will impact their portfolio. #BendingSpoons #TechAcquisitions #EuropeanTech #MandA #Tech#StartupStory #TechLeadership #saas #TechCulture #investlikethebest TIMESTAMPS 00:00:00 Intro 00:00:30 What is Bending Spoons? 00:04:30 Why Europe Lacks Trillion-Dollar Companies 00:07:25 The First Test: From Failure to Founding 00:10:52 The McKinsey Years & Funding Co-founders 00:13:24…

Karim Atiyeh, co-founder and CTO of Ramp, shares his journey from growing up in war-torn Lebanon to building one of the fastest-growing B2B companies ever. In this conversation, we explore Ramp's mission to eliminate bureaucratic waste in business finance through AI-powered automation, the transition from a payments company to a comprehensive finance platform, and Karim's unique approach to product development. He discusses the challenges of competing against incumbents like Amex, the importance of consumer-grade UX in business software, and how technical founders can leverage AI to build better products across domains they haven't traditionally worked in. From his early days building Paribus to scaling Ramp past $1B in annualized revenue, Karim reveals the principles behind building high-velocity teams, the power of hiring for "spikiness," and why speed remains the ultimate competitive advantage for startups. #Ramp #Fintech #Startup #AI #Entrepreneurship #B2B #SaaS #CEO #VentureCapital #ProductDevelopment…

Patrick O'Shaughnessy interviews Dan Wang, author of "Breakneck," about China's rise as a technological superpower and its complex relationship with the United States. Wang explores China as an "engineering state" that excels at manufacturing and scaling innovations, contrasting it with America's "lawyerly society" that prioritizes debate but struggles with execution. The conversation covers China's manufacturing dominance, the Communist Party's social engineering practices, investment opportunities and risks in Chinese companies, and the future dynamics between these two superpowers. Wang draws from his six years living in China as a technology analyst, offering insights into everything from factory visits to the potential for conflict over Taiwan. This deep dive examines how China's breakneck development pace comes with significant trade-offs in human rights and individual freedoms. TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 Intro 0:49 The Engineering State 2:41 Historical Roots of China's Mindset 4:25 The Key US Advantage:…

Jesse Zhang, founder of Decagon AI, shares insights on building AI-powered customer service agents in the most competitive era of technology. The conversation explores the intense culture required to compete against formidable opponents, drawing parallels between math competition backgrounds and successful company building. Zhang discusses their systematic approach to customer discovery, the technical challenges of voice AI, and why customer service emerged as the ideal AI application. Topics include talent wars in AI, the balance between using foundation models versus building proprietary systems, forward-deployed engineering myths, and scaling enterprise AI solutions. Zhang also reflects on competitive company culture, margin considerations, and the future of conversational AI as a unified brand interface. #AI #CustomerService #Startups #Decagon #ArtificialIntelligence #TechEntrepreneurship #CompanyBuilding #VoiceAI #EnterpriseAI #TechCompetition #aiagents #elevenlabs Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:00 Competing…

The battle for AI supremacy has ignited a fierce talent war, with companies like Meta offering salaries in the tens of millions for top researchers. In this clip, Dylan Patel explains the incredible economics behind these bidding wars. Discover why a single researcher who can make a process just 5% more efficient can save a company billions in compute costs, and how this makes even a $100 million salary a potential bargain. #AI #Semiconductors #OpenAI #NVIDIA #TechInvesting #ArtificialIntelligence #MachineLearning #TechStrategy #claude #podcast #talentwar #salary #jobs Presented by Ramp: https://ramp.com/business-cards?utm_s Sponsored by AlphaSense and Ridgeline: https://www.alpha-sense.com/invest/ https://www.ridgelineapps.com/ ****** Patrick O'Shaughnessy is the CEO of Positive Sum. All opinions expressed by Patrick and podcast guests are solely their own and do not reflect the opinion of Positive Sum. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment…

Dylan Patel, AI and semiconductor expert, joins Patrick O'Shaughnessy to dive deep into the past, present, and future of compute. They explore the massive capital requirements driving AI development, from OpenAI's $300B Oracle deal to NVIDIA's strategic partnerships. The conversation covers power infrastructure challenges, US-China competition in AI, talent wars reaching unprecedented levels, and why the current AI boom differs from previous tech bubbles. Dylan shares insights on which companies will capture value in the AI stack, from hardware makers like NVIDIA to application companies like Meta and Google, while examining the geopolitical implications of the global AI race. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:39 The OpenAI and Nvidia Deal: The Infinite Money Glitch 03:04 OpenAI's Compute Challenge and Capital Requirements 04:42 Oracle's $300 Billion Bet on OpenAI 06:06 Nvidia's Strategic Investment and Deal Mechanics 06:53 Understanding the Demand Dynamics 07:41 Scaling Laws and Diminishing Returns Debate 09:17…

Media legend Barry Diller joins Patrick O'Shaughnessy to discuss his remarkable journey from the William Morris mailroom to building entertainment giants like Fox and pioneering internet commerce. Diller shares candid insights on curiosity as an innate trait, the power of creative conflict in organizations, and his transition from entertainment executive to internet opportunist with 150+ deals. He reflects on working with icons like Rupert Murdoch during Fox's creation, the origins of The Simpsons, and navigating major industry transformations. Diller offers honest perspectives on Hollywood's decline, AI's impact, and how family ultimately gave his life meaning beyond professional success. Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 5:01 Fearlessness 10:16 Seeing Chat GPT Early 12:45 Creative Conflict 16:45 Instinct vs Data 21:11 Entertainment Innovation 22:05 Movie of the Week Success 23:44 Working with Murdoch 34:04 Internet Opportunist Era 37:02 Bill Gates 42:00 MGM Investment 44:55 Best Negotiation Advice 47:52 Simpsons…

Jeff Horing, founding partner of Insight Partners, shares his approach to building one of the world's largest venture capital firms. In this rare interview, Horing discusses Insight's unique one-fund strategy, systematic sourcing process involving 60+ people, and how they've graduated 16-18 fund managers who started their own firms. He breaks down the "college-level math" behind evaluating software businesses, explains why gross retention matters more than net retention, and reveals his five ingredients for the perfect investment. The conversation covers Insight's evolution from growth equity to buyouts, their operational support platform with 130 people, and Horing's contrarian views on AI's impact on software companies. A masterclass in institutional venture capital strategy and execution. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 15:40 Five Ingredients of Perfect Investment 20:14 One Fund Strategy 28:02 Sourcing Evolution & Strategy 44:00 What Makes a Great Sourcer 55:14 AI Applications & Late Stage Deals 1:00:12 Pattern…

Joe Liemandt, founder of Trilogy and principal of Alpha School, shares a revolutionary approach to education that enables kids to learn 10x faster in just 2 hours a day. After building a billion-dollar AI company in the 90s, Joe turned his attention to transforming K-12 education. Alpha School's students consistently outperform traditional schools while spending afternoons on life skills workshops they actually love. Joe reveals how AI-generated personalized lessons, mastery-based learning, and high standards with high support create an educational experience where students prefer school over vacation. The conversation covers scaling challenges, the role of motivation in learning, and Joe's vision to bring this revolutionary platform to a billion kids worldwide. #AlphaSchool #EducationRevolution #AIEducation #PersonalizedLearning #EdTech #LearningScience #SchoolChoice #EducationInnovation #edtech #teacher #teaching #ai #education #FutureOfEducation Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:54 What Is Alpha School? 4:02 The…